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It’s when we progress from novice to amateur that we become overconfident. A bit of knowledge can be a dangerous thing. In too many domains of our lives, we never gain enough expertise to question our opinions or discover what we don’t know. We have just enough information to feel self-assured about making pronouncements and passing judgment, failing to realize that we’ve climbed to the top of Mount Stupid without making it over to the other side. You can see this phenomenon in one of Dunning’s experiments that involved people playing the role of doctors in a simulated zombie apocalypse. When they’ve seen only a handful of injured victims, their perceived and actual skills match. Unfortunately, as they gain experience, their confidence climbs faster than their competence, and confidence remains higher than competence from that point on. This might be one of the reasons that patient mortality rates in hospitals seem to spike in July, when new residents take over. It’s not their lack of skill alone that proves hazardous; it’s their overestimation of that skill. Advancing from novice to amateur can break the rethinking cycle. As we gain experience, we lose some of our humility. We take pride in making rapid progress, which promotes a false sense of mastery. That jump-starts an overconfidence cycle, preventing us from doubting what we know and being curious about what we don’t. We get trapped in a beginner’s bubble of flawed assumptions, where we’re ignorant of our own ignorance. That’s what happened in Iceland to Davíð Oddsson, whose arrogance was reinforced by cronies and unchecked by critics. He was known to surround himself with “fiercely loyal henchmen” from school and bridge matches, and to keep a checklist of friends and enemies. Months before the meltdown, Oddsson refused help from England’s central bank. Then, at the height of the crisis, he brashly declared in public that he had no intention of covering the debts of Iceland’s banks. Two years later an independent truth commission appointed by Parliament charged him with gross negligence. Oddsson’s downfall, according to one journalist who chronicled Iceland’s financial collapse, was “arrogance, his absolute conviction that he knew what was best for the island.” What he lacked is a crucial nutrient for the mind: humility. The antidote to getting stuck on Mount Stupid is taking a regular dose of it. “Arrogance is ignorance plus conviction,” blogger Tim Urban explains. “While humility is a permeable filter that absorbs life experience and converts it into knowledge and wisdom, arrogance is a rubber shield that life experience simply bounces off of.” کانال خلاصه کتاب (https://t.me/luminous_bookclub) کانال موزیک (https://t.me/luminous_music) کانال مکالمات روزمره (https://t.me/foroughpapi) پیج اینستاگرام: Luminous__english Castbox channel: luminous english 📚هایلایت قسمت 27 کتاب Think Again ✅ Progress: پیشرفت کردن ✅ novice : تازه کار ✅ amateur: غیرحرفه ای ✅ domain : دامنه ✅ gain expertise: تخصص کسب کردن ✅ self-assured : از خود مطمئن ✅ pronouncement: اظهار ✅ pass judgment: حکم صادر کردن ✅ phenomenon: پدیده ✅ involve : مستلزم بودن ✅ simulated: شبیه سازی شده ✅ apocalypse: آخرالزمانی ✅ a handful of …: تعدادی… ✅ victim: قربانی ✅ gain experience: تجربه کسب کردن ✅ from that point on : از اون موقع به بعد ✅ mortality: مرگ و میر ✅ spike : ناگهانی بالاتر رفتن ✅ hazardous: خطرناک ✅ humility: فروتنی ✅ mastery: استادی ✅ flawed assumptions: فرضیات نادرست ✅ crony : دوست و رفیق ✅ henchmen: مریدان ✅ brashly : گستاخانه ✅ covering debts: پرداخت بدهی ✅ Gross : زیاد، بزرگ ✅ negligence: سهل انگاری ✅ permeable: نفوذ پذیر ✅ wisdom : خِرد ✅ shield: سپر ➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖➖
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